Invest来 Invest去 .....

Monday, April 30, 2018

Portfolio Review 1Q18

Currently holding on to 12 counters (see Portfolio Review 1Q10 for 1-3, Portfolio Review 2Q10 for 4, Portfolio Review 4Q10 for 5, Portfolio Review 4Q13 for 6, Portfolio Review 2Q14 for 7, Portfolio Review 2Q15 for 8, Portfolio Review 2Q16 for 9, Portfolio Review 3Q16 for 10, Portfolio Review 4Q16 for 11, and Portfolio Review 4Q17 for 12):

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b
Hyflux 6%Perp
FCOT
AIMSAMP
LMIRT

Next portfolio review due after 30 June 2018.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Sunday, January 21, 2018

Portfolio Review 4Q17

Two transactions completed:

Croesus RTr
- Buy
  Renewed optimism in Japan from Abenomics(!)
- Sell
  Blackstone's offer for Croesus
SoilbuildBizReit
- Buy
  Resilience of business park rentals relative to logistics/industrial properties
- Sell
  KTL Offshore, Technics, NK Ingredients

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b
Hyflux 6%Perp
FCOT
AIMSAMP
LMIRT

Buy
Steady performance

Next portfolio review due after 31 March 2018.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Record dividends but uncertainty ahead

Enjoyed new high in dividends received, but lost a major contributor in Croesus after it was delisted (albeit offset by healthy capital gains).

For 2018, looking for a new dividends stream to replace Croesus. Also, keeping an eye on Hyflux. Otherwise, rest of portfolio looks to be holding firm, although industrial reits still suffering some rental pressure.

Outside of reits, local property market looks to be experiencing an upswing.

Stay hungry, stay foolish!

Friday, September 29, 2017

Portfolio Review 3Q17

Currently holding on to 13 counters (see Portfolio Review 1Q10 for 1-3, Portfolio Review 2Q10 for 4, Portfolio Review 4Q10 for 5, Portfolio Review 2Q13 for 6, Portfolio Review 4Q13 for 7, Portfolio Review 2Q14 for 8, Portfolio Review 2Q15 for 9, Portfolio Review 2Q16 for 10, Portfolio Review 3Q16 for 11 and 12, and Portfolio Review 4Q16 for 13):

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b
Hyflux 6%Perp
SoilbuildBizReit
FCOT
AIMSAMP

Next portfolio review due after 31 December 2017.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated, and not including ongoing Cache rights issue

Friday, June 30, 2017

Portfolio Review 2Q17

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b
Hyflux 6%Perp
SoilbuildBizReit
FCOT
AIMSAMP

Next portfolio review due after 30 September 2017.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated, cumulative dividends was corrected for end 2014. Net equity rose even more than last quarter 1Q17, due in part to Blackstone's offer for Croesus (interestingly, previous delisting experienced was with Pacific's exit offer for PST).

Friday, March 31, 2017

Portfolio Review 1Q17

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b
Hyflux 6%Perp
SoilbuildBizReit
FCOT
AIMSAMP

Next portfolio review due after 30 June 2017.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated. This quarter saw the largest quarterly increase in net equity thus far (exceeding the previous high in 3Q16, but still smaller in magnitude than the largest quarterly decrease in net equity in 3Q15)

Saturday, December 31, 2016

Portfolio Review 4Q16

One transaction completed:

Cambridge

Buy
Gearing has been progressively lowered through periodic repayment of debt and is around 33.4% after the latest round of paying down approximately S$20.0 million on 17 February 2011 (cf. gearing level of >40% in the early part of 2010, see From the Beginning...), but continues to offer high yield of >9% at ~50cents
Cessation of Distribution Reinvestment Plan -> no DPU dilution resulting from DRP ("Distribution Reinvestment Plan
The Manager has been informed by the Ministry of Finance on 17 December 2010 that the Distribution Reinvestment Plan (“DRP”) for REITs will not be extended beyond 31December 2010.")
Sell
Lack of sponsor coupled with challenging outlook for local industrial rentals amidst oversupply concerns

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b
Hyflux 6%Perp
SoilbuildBizReit
FCOT
AIMSAMP

Buy
Presence of sponsor and optimism over venturing into developing built-to-suit properties

Next portfolio review due after 31 March 2017.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Thank goodness for dividends... yet again

Deja vu? This is beginning to be a familiar refrain - once again decided to absorb some capital loss in rebalancing the portfolio while at the same time reaping the benefits of staying invested and collecting income.

In terms of looking ahead at 2017, amidst the aftermath of Brexit and a changing political scene, it is anyone's guess how the economy will pan out. Well, I should be keeping an eye on any large movements and be ready for more rebalancing in case of any impact on overall portfolio value / dividends stream.

Wishing everyone good fortune =)

Friday, September 30, 2016

Portfolio Review 3Q16

Currently holding on to 13 counters (see Portfolio Review 1Q10 for 1-3, Portfolio Review 2Q10 for 4, Portfolio Review 4Q10 for 5, Portfolio Review 1Q11 for 6, Portfolio Review 2Q13 for 7, Portfolio Review 4Q13 for 8, Portfolio Review 2Q14 for 9, Portfolio Review 2Q15 for 10, and Portfolio Review 2Q16 for 11):

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b
Hyflux 6%Perp
SoilbuildBizReit

Buy
Resilience of business park rentals relative to logistics/industrial properties

FCOT

Buy
Stability of contributions from local technopark and overseas Australian properties

Next portfolio review due after 31 December 2016.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated. Excluding dividends, combined paper and transacted P/L recovered to net positive this quarter, one year on from first instance of portfolio paper loss in 3Q15

Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Portfolio Review 2Q16

Currently holding on to 11 counters (see Portfolio Review 1Q10 for 1-3, Portfolio Review 2Q10 for 4, Portfolio Review 4Q10 for 5, Portfolio Review 1Q11 for 6, Portfolio Review 2Q13 for 7, Portfolio Review 4Q13 for 8, Portfolio Review 2Q14 for 9, and Portfolio Review 2Q15 for 10):

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b
Hyflux 6%Perp

Buy
Diversification into perpetuals

Next portfolio review due after 30 September 2016.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Sunday, April 03, 2016

Portfolio Review 1Q16

Currently holding on to 10 counters (see Portfolio Review 1Q10 for 1-3, Portfolio Review 2Q10 for 4, Portfolio Review 4Q10 for 5, Portfolio Review 1Q11 for 6, Portfolio Review 2Q13 for 7, Portfolio Review 4Q13 for 8, Portfolio Review 2Q14 for 9, and Portfolio Review 2Q15 for 10):

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b

Next portfolio review due after 30 June 2016.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated, and not including ongoing OUE HTrust rights issue

Sunday, January 03, 2016

Portfolio Review 4Q15

One transaction completed:

Sembmarine

Buy
High beta with decent yield amongst STI component stocks (cf. SIAS article)
Record order book estimated at more than S$13b as of end December 2012
Price driven down by recent bad news (i.e. Q3 profit decline on margin concerns and Jurong Shipyard accident)
Sell
Prolonged pessimistic outlook for oil price

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b

Next portfolio review due after 31 March 2016.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Thank goodness for dividends... again

2015 was again a year when dividends was the main support for my portfolio, as I slowly tend towards a largely hands-off approach in investing, instead relying on the quarterly and semi-annual streams of passive income.

In terms of base capital, my loss on Sembmarine (realised this year in 2015) dwarfs that for Sabana (realised in 2014) by far. Ouch, really painful lesson for me, talk about catching a falling knife indeed...

Here's to a better 2016 !

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Portfolio Review 3Q15

Currently holding on to 11 counters (see Portfolio Review 1Q10 for 1-3, Portfolio Review 2Q10 for 4, Portfolio Review 4Q10 for 5, Portfolio Review 1Q11 for 6, Portfolio Review 4Q12 for 7, Portfolio Review 2Q13 for 8, Portfolio Review 4Q13 for 9, Portfolio Review 2Q14 for 10, and Portfolio Review 2Q15 for 11):

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Sembmarine
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b

Next portfolio review due after 31 December 2015.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated. Heavy paper losses this quarter, to the extent of first time experiencing overall portfolio paper loss

Saturday, July 18, 2015

Portfolio Review 2Q15

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Sembmarine
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust
FCL 3.65%b

Buy
Diversification into local retail bond

Next portfolio review due after 30 September 2015.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Friday, April 03, 2015

Portfolio Review 1Q15

Currently holding on to 10 counters (see Portfolio Review 1Q10 for 1-3, Portfolio Review 2Q10 for 4, Portfolio Review 4Q10 for 5, Portfolio Review 1Q11 for 6, Portfolio Review 4Q12 for 7, Portfolio Review 2Q13 for 8, Portfolio Review 4Q13 for 9, and Portfolio Review 2Q14 for 10):

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Sembmarine
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust

Next portfolio review due after 30 June 2015.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Portfolio Review 4Q14

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Sembmarine
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust

Next portfolio review due after 31 March 2015.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Thank goodness for dividends

2014 was the year when dividends was the main contributor to my portfolio's continued growth.

Indeed, a small trading loss was realised on Sabana (my first such transaction!), although it can be considered to have been the right decision on hindsight given Sabana's continued price decline thereafter. My remaining counters which I am holding on to are similarly at a slight paper loss for the year.

This trading / paper loss was more than made up for by the dividends received this year, which experienced the largest annual quantum increase since the start of my investments. I should reiterate that dividend yield depends on (i) the company's ability to grow its earnings and corresponding payouts, and (ii) the investor's entry price. This nicely segues to the next part.

Oil price turmoil

The oil price has been on a downtrend. Whether this is due to a Saudi ploy to drive out inefficient shale oil producers, or a conspiracy against Russia, ISIS, it is undeniably adversely impacting oil and gas related counters. In the local stocks scene, we are referring to the likes of Keppel (although it also has other business arms), Sembmarine, Ezion, etc.

In the last quarter of 2014 the oil price has broken below US$60/bbl, down by around half from the highs earlier this year. How low it could go eventually is anybody's guess.

Where this affects the oil and gas related counters is if the oil price goes low enough and stays there to cause order cancellations for drilling rigs, service crafts, etc., hence contributing to smaller orderbooks and lower earnings. From reports, analysts are saying the breakeven range for oil extraction could be US$40-80/bbl, depending whether it is shallow water, deep water, ...

Crossing my fingers for Sembmarine's continued strong orderbook and higher margins, and keeping an eye out for the other oil and gas related counters at attractive entry prices.

Merry X'mas, Happy New Year and hopefully huat in 2015 !

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Stock & Unit Trust Portfolio Update Nov 2014

Continuing on from Stock & Unit Trust Portfolio Update Aug 2013,

11 Nov 2014
Added to Croesus RTr existing holdings
26 Nov 2014
Added to SembMarine existing holdings

Portfolio Review 3Q14

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Sembmarine
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust

Next portfolio review due after 31 December 2014.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Portfolio Review 2Q14

One transaction completed:

Sabana

Buy
First Syariah-compliant REIT here in Singapore
Luck with IPO balloting for public (see Sixth time (un)lucky)? entry)
Sell
Decreasing occupancy rate and dividend payout
Rising gearing ratio

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Cambridge
Sembmarine
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
OUE HTrust

Buy
Positive on Orchard shopping belt
Stable price and dividend payout

Next portfolio review due after 30 September 2014.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

Portfolio Review 1Q14

Currently holding on to 10 counters (see Portfolio Review 1Q10 for 1-3, Portfolio Review 2Q10 for 4, Portfolio Review 4Q10 for 5-6, Portfolio Review 1Q11 for 7, Portfolio Review 4Q12 for 8, Portfolio Review 2Q13 for 9 and Portfolio Review 4Q13 for 10):

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Sabana
Cambridge
Sembmarine
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust

Next portfolio review due after 30 June 2014.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Thursday, January 02, 2014

Portfolio Review 4Q13

FrasersCT
PLife
Starhill
Cache
First REIT
Sabana
Cambridge
Sembmarine
Croesus RTr
CDL HTrust
- Buy
  Positive on Maldives acquisitions in Jan and Dec 2013

Next portfolio review due after 31 March 2014.

Note to self: only simple P/L calculated

Reflections
Towards the end of 2013, I have been seeing rather a lot of talk about rising interest rates going forward, and how this is likely to adversely impact REITs and bonds going forward. Naturally, this drew my attention as a vested investor.

Nonetheless, I am inclined to sit tight at the moment. Nothing too scientific, my gut feel is that this is likely to be a gradual trend more than a sudden jump, future US Fed announcements notwithstanding (more like market noise to me...)

Over the past year, portfolio value has certainly taken a hit, will be looking to pick up more of some counters which I am more optimistic about.

With the benefit of hindsight, current level of passive income is comfortable but has not been increasing as fast as I had hoped. Shall be aiming to achieve an extra 1.5-2 months of "extra pay" through passive income in the near time, wish me luck!

Happy New Year and a great 2014 to all !!

Sunday, December 08, 2013

Talking about personal insurance

Nearing year end, I have been approached by a number of insurance agents recommending me their companies' products. That got me to look at my existing portfolio (something which I haven't done in quite a while!)

After some research, I found that insurance can generally cover the following areas (disclaimer: to the more sophisticated, please pardon the simplification) -

Death - this can take a few forms, such as term life or whole life participating policies.
A term life policy pays out the sum insured upon death.
With a whole life participating policy, the sum insured is paid out together with a 'bonus value' (accumulated over the years) upon death. Alternatively, one can surrender the policy at any point whereupon he or she will receive the 'cash value' of the policy. For this, one should note the 'breakeven point' of the policy, which is the point where the cash value (which builds up over time) catches up with the cumulative premiums paid. Nowadays for paying of premiums, there is the option of 'limited pay', which means that instead of spreading out the premiums over the entire duration of the policy, one can choose to front-load the premiums over the first e.g. 10 / 20 years, albeit at higher amounts of course.

Total and Permanent Disability (TPD) - in most cases, this is usually tagged along with death benefit, meaning that the sum insured will be applicable for death and TPD.

Terminal Illness (TI) - this is paid out when the person insured is declared by a doctor to have a condition which is likely to lead to death within 12 months. As with TPD, TI sometimes accompanies death benefit.

Critical Illness (CI) - based on my understanding, the list of insurable critical illnesses has been standardised to the current 30 by the relevant authorities and now applies to all insurance companies.
CI can be standalone policies (more pricey?) or as a rider to life policies.
Since the case of Theresa Tan, there are now also early critical illness plans which cover the early / intermediate stages of the list of 30 CI, the most prominent being that of cancer. As a comparison, early CI pays out (up to $75k) even when diagnose with benign tumours while CI only pays out if it is malignant or invasive in nature. Note however that early CI can be more expensive than CI since there is a higher chance of payout.

Accident - personal accident plans are relatively cheap (in the order of a few dollars a month) and pays for TCM and for e.g. loss of limb, etc.

Hospitalisation and Surgical - in Singapore, this is covered by MediShield (which can be paid for from Medisave Account). Personally, I feel that this is probably one of the more essential types of insurance for protecting oneself and one's families, and had discussed this previously.

Disability Income - this kicks in when one is declared unable to work as a result of injury or illness (I was quoted hand injury in the case of a surgeon and depression in the case of an office worker as examples), and will pay a monthly amount in place of the salary which one would have been earning. These are highly customisable - for instance, one can choose the amount to be paid (up to 75% of last-drawn salary), paid up to what age (e.g. 60, 65, 70), and the waiting period before the payouts start (e.g. 60, 90, 180 days).

Savings - an example is an endowment policy which pays out upon maturity. In most cases, this is used to help meet a specific financial objective, such as saving up for children's education.
Investment - an investment-linked policy (ILP) allows one to practise 'dollar cost averaging' and build up a position in a desired asset class / geographical market by putting in a regular fixed amount each month. I had shared a little personal experience of this previously.

Of course, the above descriptions only scratch the surface of the full complement of insurance policies available. Nonetheless, I figured it was important to understand my options and from there assess what is my own comfort level - how much am I prepared to pay for insurance (just to share, I was told 10-20% of my income as a rough gauge) and how much would I like to be covered for? As with buying anything, there will be the cut-price option and the cut-throat option... Feel free to share your own experience :)