Currently holding on to 10 counters (see Portfolio Review 1Q10 for 1-3, Portfolio Review 2Q10 for 4, Portfolio Review 4Q10 for 5, Portfolio Review 1Q11 for 6, Portfolio Review 4Q12 for 7, Portfolio Review 2Q13 for 8, Portfolio Review 4Q13 for 9, and Portfolio Review 2Q14 for 10):- FrasersCT
- PLife
- Starhill
- Cache
- First REIT
- Cambridge
- Sembmarine
- Croesus RTr
- CDL HTrust
- OUE HTrust
Note to self: only simple P/L calculated
Thank goodness for dividends
2014 was the year when dividends was the main contributor to my portfolio's continued growth.
Indeed, a small trading loss was realised on Sabana (my first such transaction!), although it can be considered to have been the right decision on hindsight given Sabana's continued price decline thereafter. My remaining counters which I am holding on to are similarly at a slight paper loss for the year.
This trading / paper loss was more than made up for by the dividends received this year, which experienced the largest annual quantum increase since the start of my investments. I should reiterate that dividend yield depends on (i) the company's ability to grow its earnings and corresponding payouts, and (ii) the investor's entry price. This nicely segues to the next part.
Oil price turmoil
The oil price has been on a downtrend. Whether this is due to a Saudi ploy to drive out inefficient shale oil producers, or a conspiracy against Russia, ISIS, it is undeniably adversely impacting oil and gas related counters. In the local stocks scene, we are referring to the likes of Keppel (although it also has other business arms), Sembmarine, Ezion, etc.
In the last quarter of 2014 the oil price has broken below US$60/bbl, down by around half from the highs earlier this year. How low it could go eventually is anybody's guess.
Where this affects the oil and gas related counters is if the oil price goes low enough and stays there to cause order cancellations for drilling rigs, service crafts, etc., hence contributing to smaller orderbooks and lower earnings. From reports, analysts are saying the breakeven range for oil extraction could be US$40-80/bbl, depending whether it is shallow water, deep water, ...
Crossing my fingers for Sembmarine's continued strong orderbook and higher margins, and keeping an eye out for the other oil and gas related counters at attractive entry prices.
Merry X'mas, Happy New Year and hopefully huat in 2015 !
